In the Horn of Africa, 2023 was characterised by numerous devastating extreme weather events, a trend that is expected to intensify in the coming years. The region continues to suffer from both rapid onset events such as floods and droughts and slow-onset climate change-related phenomena such as desertification. Although the countries of the region contribute only marginally to global greenhouse gas emissions, they bear the brunt of climate change-induced disasters that lead to the destruction of livelihoods and displacement from their homes. Research shows that climate-related disasters such as floods, droughts and desertification have a direct impact on the environment and livelihoods, forcing people in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to migrate. In line with this, recent evidence clearly shows that climate change is exacerbating extreme weather events and their impacts, especially in vulnerable regions such as Africa, and causing a large-scale displacement crisis. For example, temperature increases and droughts are important factors affecting agricultural production in African countries, with poorer countries experiencing more severe negative impacts. In addition, climate-related disasters can exacerbate ethnic tensions and increase the risk of armed conflict, especially in highly fragmented countries.
However, the countries that contribute significantly to global warming have engaged in migration policy discourses that are disconnected from the realities of poorer countries. As one expert, an advocate for grass-root engagement, noted: “The countries that contribute significantly to global warming and climate change are actively steering migration policy discussions. However, these discussions often overlook the fact that people in poorer countries bear the consequences and pay the price in order to maintain the lifestyles, industrialisation and economic growth in industrialised countries”.
Despite gradual progress in recognising the anthropogenic impacts of climate change and the emergence of initiatives such as Loss and Damage, which acknowledge the disproportionate impact of climate change on regions such as Africa, there remain significant gaps among international actors, including the EU, in explicitly identifying climate-induced disasters as a major cause of livelihood loss and displacement in affected regions (according to representatives from public institutions). Regardless of the positions of international actors from industrialised countries, African countries have taken a leading role in recognising the human contribution to climate change and its impact on migration. According to an interview with a representative from a German Development Cooperation, policy makers and regional policy organisations, such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), have acknowledged climate-induced displacement and the need to address its causes. As one expert from an intergovernmental organisation noted, “It is increasingly recognised that many countries on the African continent have taken concrete steps to acknowledge the contribution of human-induced factors to phenomena such as droughts, floods, desertification and other impacts of slow-onset climate events”.
As far as international actors are concerned, our empirical analysis revealed a prevailing tendency in documents and media reports on climate change and migration to portray climate-related disasters — such as droughts, floods and desertification — as natural phenomena that occur independently of human action. This view emphasises the unpredictability and inevitability of such events and absolves the EU and other industrialised countries of responsibility for the resulting migration from Africa. Interviewees pointed out that many actors, including governments and non-governmental organisations (NGOs), perceive extreme weather events as natural disasters. A participant from civil society in the Horn of Africa explained: “Most stakeholders, including governments and NGOs, tend to view droughts and floods in the region as natural disasters and do not recognise that they are man-made or caused by climate change. This view makes it difficult to consider sustainable solutions”. In this context, a civil society expert in the region stated that:
“I think that the number of people affected by droughts and other extreme weather events has increased, with the severity and frequency escalating due to the increasing impact of climate change. There are gaps when it comes to explicitly recognising the displacement of people and destruction of livelihoods due to climate change-induced disasters and attributing them to human-induced activities in industrialised countries”
An expert working for one of the United Nations organisations expressed a similar view: “To be honest, not everyone agrees that the frequent and intense extreme weather events in the Horn of Africa, such as droughts and floods, are a consequence of climate change caused by human activity. Many, especially international actors, still see these as natural phenomena”. This natural view in policy documents and media coverage constructs a narrative that portrays these disasters as beyond human control, thus minimising the EU’s perceived responsibility for addressing the underlying causes of climate migration.
Conclusions
By framing these disasters as natural rather than man-made events, powerful actors can strategically distance themselves from the consequences of their actions, thereby evading accountability and responsibility for climate-induced displacement. The narrative of naturalisation has several far-reaching implications for policy, international cooperation, ethical considerations and public perception.
The naturalisation of climate-related disasters has significant empirical and theoretical implications for understanding the mechanisms by which developed countries evade responsibility for climate-induced displacement. This view shifts responsibility away from the main perpetrators of climate change, creates ethical challenges in international cooperation and shifts responsibility to the most vulnerable regions. It also reinforces a disproportionate focus on humanitarian aid and influences public perceptions in a way that undermines support for systemic change. A shift towards recognising the anthropogenic roots of these disasters is essential to promote accountability, support equitable policies and ensure that responses to climate change are just and inclusive.
